||سوسن حبيبي واحدزنجاني
||مديريت علوم بانکی
||بررسي عوامل موثربربازپرداخت به موقع تسهيلات بانك كشاورزي طي سالهاي 79-1363
||The present research is pursuing the study of the factors effective in the timely paying off the facilities of Keshavarzi Bank (KB) during 1984 to 2000. Two hypotheses have been examined in this research. The first hypothesis indicates the increase in the price index of the agricultural inpusts and the increase in the value of the imported products will cause non-repayment of the facilities at the right time. The second one implies the increase in the wholesale- price index of the agricultural products will result in the timely repayment of the loans.
By applying the regression technic and statistical analysis, it became clear that there is a meaningful relation between the independent and dependent variables of the mentioned hypotheses; that is to say that there is a meaningful and direct relation between dependent and independent variables (the price index of agricultural inputs and the value of the imported agricultural products), meaning that the increase of the value of the imports and the price index of the agricultural inputs have resulted in the non-repayment of the loans in due time. The second hypothesis has also been confirmed, so meaning the increase in the wholesale price index of agricultural products has resulted in the timely repayment of the loans. Furthermore, by testing other independent variables, it became clear, that there is no meaningful relation between dependent and independent variables (the production cost of the agricultural products, the export value of the agricultural products, the ratio of the value of the imports to the production cost of the agricultural products, insurance premium, indemnification, gratuitous aids, non-biding facilities against premise collateral). In another test, it was clear that there is a meaningful relation between dependent and independent variables (binding facilities and non-binding facilities against
guaranty, promissory notes and the rate of rainfall), in such a way that, there is a negative relation between the independent and dependent variables (binding facilities and the facilities against the promissory notes and the rate of the
rainfall). However, there has been a direct and positive relation with the facilities against guaranty. Therefore, according to the most important recommendations, the bank facilities, with the valid collateral, and binding facilities should be allocated only to those projects having efficiency. Furthermore, the bank supervision over firms, having enjoyed large loans but suffering from managerial shortcoming, is necessary. Besides, insuring the portfolio of the bank facilities has been recommended.
||حسين حشمتي مولائي
||31 شهریور 1381